Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
